$2.5 Trillion Trade Finance Gap Targeted by AI FinTechs
FinTech startups are deploying AI to make small trade loans viable, targeting a global financing gap for exporters that stood at $2.5 trillion in 2025.
A $2.5 trillion global gap exists between what businesses need to finance trade and what they can borrow, unchanged from 2023, according to an Asian Development Bank survey of trade finance providers. When a company sells goods overseas, it often waits 30, 60 or 90 days to get paid and needs cash in the meantime. Banks have been reluctant to lend against that wait, especially to smaller companies, because the cost of checking a borrower's paperwork and creditworthiness can outweigh the profit on a small loan.
Smaller exporters get turned down 41% of the time, a rate that has nearly caught up to the 40% rejection rate larger companies face. The ADB cautions that this convergence may partly reflect smaller firms giving up on applying rather than a real improvement in access.
Small Loans Just Got a New Set of Lenders
A group of FinTech startups is trying to solve the same problem faster than banks can. UAE-based Comfi raised $65 million in April to expand across the Middle East and North Africa. The company pays suppliers within 24 hours of an invoice, while giving their customers up to 90 days to actually pay, and has processed more than 15,000 invoices for over 1,000 clients.
“By combining AI-driven underwriting with disciplined risk management, the team has built a scalable platform designed for real-economy impact,” said Christos Mastoras, whose firm, Iliad Partners, led the round.
Hokodo and Treyd are doing something similar in different markets. U.K.-based Hokodo can approve a business buyer instantly, even on its first purchase, and offers payment terms up to 90 days. Stockholm-based Treyd focuses on helping retail brands pay their overseas suppliers upfront, giving the brand itself up to five months to repay, and makes credit decisions by connecting directly to a business’s accounting data. Both companies, like Comfi, read a business’s invoices, payment history and other transaction data instead of relying on the slow paperwork review banks traditionally use.
The Real Test Is Whether the Math Actually Works
Making loans cheaper to process is only half the bet. The harder question is whether these companies can actually tell which borrowers are safe better than a bank can, or whether they’re simply lending faster to businesses banks already turned down for good reason.
If these companies really can spot good borrowers that banks miss, cheaper loan processing could open up trade financing to millions of small businesses currently shut out. If they can’t, faster and cheaper lending to riskier borrowers could turn into real losses once conditions get harder, the exact risk that made banks cautious about small trade loans in the first place.
Small Business Demand for AI Tools
Small businesses are already showing real appetite for these tools. Seventy-five percent of SMBs said they would use at least one AI feature offered by their financial institution within the next two years, rising to 83% among businesses generating more than $1 million in annual revenue, according to PYMNTS Intelligence’s “Credit Union Tracker Series.” The demand is there. Whether the underwriting behind it holds up once the economy turns is still an open question.
